Notre Dame will join the Big 10 - maybe. Jack Swarbrick, athletic director of the Irish, said yesterday that the nation's première Catholic university (sorry Boston College) is paying close attention to what is happening in the conference shuffle.

«I believe we're at a point right now where the changes could be relatively small or they could be seismic,» he said. «The landscape could look completely different. What I have to do along with Father Jenkins is try and figure out where those pieces are falling and how the landscape is changing.»

If they thought the most likely outcome was going to be small, Mr. Swarbrick would dismiss any talk of Notre Dame joining a conference out of hand. The fact is - ND has not been relevent in the national title picture for some time. Its TV contract with NBC is based on past performance and has been eclipsed financially by the SEC and Big 10. It needs a conference affiliation. The Big 10 is a fit.

«We start that process with a clear preference,» he said. «You each could invent a scenario that would force our hand. It's not hard to do. We just have to pay attention and stay on top of the game and talk to people. That's what I'm spending 50 percent of my time doing right now. I'm talking to people who you're writing about and trying to make sure I understand what they're thinking and what's going on.»

«What if realignment impacted the shape of the BCS?» he said. «Also, the Big East has been a great home for us [in other sports], but if there are fundamental changes to the Big East as a result of realignment, what does that do? What if a few conferences further distinguish themselves from the field? What are the competitive ramifications of that?

«... That's why I'm spending 50 percent of my time right now talking to people [about this].»

The times they are a changing.

If the Big Ten expands and gets a deal that is worth, say, $25 million per school and is regularly getting two schools in the BCS, that might be a deal breaker for Notre Dame. The school's deal with NBC runs out after this season. it reportedly pays between $8 million and $9 million per season. If NBC offers less, or its offer remains the same, then it might be time to consider a conference.
The thing is, Notre Dame can't wait around to see what the Big Ten does. It must tell the conference yes or no. It can't raise its hand after Rutgers is admitted and say, «We want in too.» Or can it? It is Notre Dame.
The biggest news out of New York is that there are cracks in ND's brick wall blocking conference affiliation.